The COIN ETF decision: What’s next?

Now that the SEC has effectively denied the Winklevoss COIN ETF, what’s next for Bitcoin?

I wrote the below in reply to a friend and figured I may as well share it here. Much of it is inline with Vinny’s essay.

In the short term the price might go sideways or down but will rebound within a month or two. I’ve already bought some on this dip. I don’t expect the price to fall below $1K and it will likely return to its ATH by April or May

In the long run this won’t have much effect. I actually agree with the SEC that it’s too early for an ETF. I’d prefer to see Bitcoin trading at $3-5K per coin, a total crypto market cap of $50-100B. Once the ETF floodgate is open, there will be many approved ETFs in short order, for Bitcoin and possibly altcoins like Ethereum. From there it’s onto the regulated futures and forwards on exchanges like the CME. So can only be better when the ecosystem is deeper, more mature, more institutionalized and regulated.

I don’t see any near-term catalysts and I’m not on the lookout for one. The main story is a strong one: Bitcoin as digital gold. Bitcoin as an uncorrelated asset with equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Bitcoin as the Internet of money / value. The big one on everyone’s minds is Segwit / possible hard fork which may happen later this year.

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