My Bitcoin and Crypto Portfolio: the 7th issue

Hi everyone, sorry for the delay.

Here are the assets that represent 1% or more of my portfolio, from largest to smallest:

  • BTC
  • ETH
  • XEM
  • DASH
  • LTC
  • BTS
  • XMR
  • ETC
  • ANS
  • PEPECASH
  • XRP
  • XCP

Here is my monthly performance. June results will be in the next update. I will likely underperform BTC in June after a nice streak, due to the general altcoins market tanking while BTC held surprisingly steady:

Some thoughts:

  • I have been reducing investment in small cap altcoins (anything outside the top 10-20), and increasing portfolio weight of BTC and a few “blue chip” coins. My current favorites include LTC, XMR, and DASH
  • Crypto-experts like to hate on DASH, and I went through a period of that myself, drawing down my DASH position by over 50%. But today I think the community and network are in as good a position as they’ve ever been. One of the few which has the potential to “cross the chasm” as a digital cash and payment network
  • A small bet I’m excited by is Etheroll (big believer in gambling on blockchain, plus the token pays a dividend of earnings, the first dividend is August 1st)
  • I don’t have a strong view on the UASF / Segwit2x debate. Volatility will likely increase as we draw closer to August 1st. My position hasn’t changed: I’d prefer a hard fork and two separate implementations of Bitcoin and an end to the current drama. Similar to the ETH-ETC hard fork, I believe this will eventually maximize ecosystem value. My only advice is to store your Bitcoin in a wallet where you control the private keys, to maximize your choices in case of a hard fork(s). Two good software solutions include Electrum and Armory Wallet, which both have multi-sig as well. Regardless of the outcome, as long as you don’t panic, your BTC will do just fine
  • I’m less active on the investment front, because I don’t have a strong view of the market anymore. Previously I was convinced that cryptocurrencies would surpass $100 billion. I just thought we’d get there by 2020, not in early 2017. Now we look to the next benchmark. Will cryptocurrencies hit $1 trillion? There will be much more regulatory oversight and coercion risk from nation states. There will be more governance risk and technological risk within each cryptocurrency. If you add a zero to everything, you also add a zero to every hack, fine, and scam. A big driver to $100 billion was hope and speculation. $1 trillion will require more proven use cases and much greater scale. The use case of store of value alone could get us there, but given the speed of the market’s rise and the uncertainties on the road ahead, I am in wait-and-see mode
  • I haven’t participated in any ICOs. Several have interested me (including FunFair and Tezos) but my current take is that if the token becomes publicly traded, I will take a position then. A good investment in this space should return at least 50x. The downside of missing the ICO is forgoing 2, 3, maybe 5x short-term returns. The upsides are more time and data to vet the investment, reduced risk once it becomes “publicly” traded, and a simpler safer path to buy and hold your investment.

Thanks for reading. Happy investing!

Kevin (@kgao)

If you enjoyed this essay, here’s a list of the assets I own and the ones I’ve researched. Find me on Twitter and signup on the right to receive an update when I publish a new essay.